Dr. Kamal Labwani
Dr. Kamal Labwani
Many Western policymakers expect that Bashar al-Assad will remain in power for a certain period of time, and they seem to await his victory over extremists with satisfaction. Some have also articulated that, given this possible scenario, the moderate opposition should deal with it pragmatically. My response to those who contemplate this frightening scenario, however, is that continuing on this path is a curse that will ultimately afflict everyone.
The scale of the crimes committed by Assad’s regime on a daily basis, fanning the flames of civil war, brutality, and societal divisions, demonstrates why his remaining in power is a curse. Such problems are likely to worsen if Assad holds on to the presidency. A large number of Syrians would rather die than return to a regime skilled in the art of killing and torturing them. In the town of Hama after it surrendered to regime forces, around 50 young people were arrested daily by the regime, at least half of whom disappeared in prison. Add to this the scenes of deliberate provocation and abuse that took place in every square and street of the city.
Yet the suffering of Syrians is not the only consequence. This curse will afflict Syria’s neighbors, which will suffer from the spread of chaos, extremism, refugees, and the infiltration of terrorist organizations like Hezbollah and al-Qaeda, threatening the security and stability of every country in the region. And these organizations possess heavy weapons, which could proliferate beyond the region’s borders. Assad’s survival will drive many desperate and outraged young people to violent acts against the regime and those who surrender to it, in addition to the countries that restore relations with it.
The lack of effective alternatives will turn all of Syria’s revolutionary forces toward extremism and radicalism, and refugee camps in particular will serve as powerful incubators for the spread of extremism.
If Assad remains in power, it will destroy any chance of the moderate opposition’s survival, and their plan to topple a corrupt and authoritarian regime. Although some revolutionary forces currently appear to be Islamist jihadis, they should not all be labeled at extremist. I have known many revolutionaries since they were children and I have watched them as their positions and ideologies have changed. I have considered the factors and conditions that contribute to such an evolution, and I believe it is logical and natural progression for any person subject to conditions like those in Syria. But I am convinced that this sudden, dangerous, and radical transformation can be quickly cured if circumstances change.
The regime’s crimes led the Syrian people to protest, and then forced them to take up arms in response to systematic violence and foreign support that the regime received in the form of money, arms, and fighters from Iran, Lebanon, Iraq, and Russia – all of which the opposition lacked. The people made up for this deficit by resorting to extremist, religious, and jihadi organizations, as they were the only ones capable of adopting effective tactics against a superior enemy. Terrorism is linked to authoritarianism, corruption, and arbitrary violence, and can be dealt with as an internal issue in the context of rebuilding Syrian society simply by bolstering the moderate forces as an effective alternative.
The West has been reluctant to provide effective aid to the revolutionaries out of fear that they would one day turn their efforts against them rather than combating the regime and its allies. However, they do not seem to understand the harsh conditions that changed the revolution’s course. The West did not attempt to change the trajectory of the Syrian crisis or assist the revolution, and its discourse failed to reflect the effects of the regime’s brutal conduct on its people. They referred to Assad and his cronies as a regime rather than a criminal gang that fuels dangerous religious convictions. The regime’s brutality in Syria is incomprehensible and rules out any chance of reconciliation. The Syrian people will not be able to turn this bitter page, and it will be difficult to calm the people’s urge for vengeance against this brutal oppressor.
It frightens me that the Western media and its policymakers have not reached such a conclusion, and that Assad’s staying in power is seen as a solution because justice cannot be achieved now. Some experts, diplomats, and journalists in the West do not see the facts because they are looking through distorted lenses, and I fear that other global problems and crises will be handled in the same way.
After all that I have personally witnessed, if Assad and his regime remain in power for any reason or under any conditions, I will find myself feeling sympathetic toward anyone who fights him, no matter the type of clothes he wears or the flag he hoists. This is because I believe that these people are victims of Assad’s regime and they are exercising their legitimate right to self-defense in the only way they can or the only way they deem successful. I believe that the majority of Syrian society, the moderate opposition, and its allies will share my views in this regard.
I sense that the world will witness many wars and much brutality in the near future unless we correct today’s failures in Syria. What is Russia’s conduct today and China’s tomorrow but a repeat of Germany’s behavior 70 years ago? The world is under threat if it is governed by brute forces rather than those that uphold rights and rule of law. Those who claim to defend universal rights and laws, who have the power to do so, yet who yield to whoever wields force by describing their behavior as “pragmatic” will only pave the way for brutality everywhere. What is being proposed to us now will destroy every human value, every right, and every justice. It will destroy everything that we hold dear. This is why Assad’s survival is a curse that will afflict everyone.
