Everybody ask whom the moderate opposition, and search for classify the local power on the land to now whom they will support and whom they will fight, after the international armies send to intervene in Syria which became a security problem for a lot of states.
As you know Syria in the middle of the world and the conflict in it summarize the world’s competition. So I am afraid that Syria could be a strike of the third world war,
When the people try to get their freedom, the totalitarian corrupt regime face them by cruel sectarian violence, which speed up the growth of Islamic Jihadist groups had support also from neighbors and golf stats whom afraid the freedom to knock their doors.
The Syrian people divided between whom continue supporting the revolution (poor Arab Sunni especially in the villages and shanty towns), and whom obliged to still with the regime (Always and minorities, so the rich corrupt class)……but the majority tried to escape that conflict by keeping silent or leaving the country.
After that this simple picture had complexed by, the outside intervention especially of Hezbollah and Iran, which invite indirectly the most fanatic international Jihadist, and covered the facts by lot of lies and deceives.
Now it get hard to understand the situation, not only because a lot of distortion done by ideological propagandas, but also because the huge politic investment and external intervention.
When we look to the map and fronts we will misunderstand the reality: Hamah as example usually the most fanatic Sunni city is still with the regime, Damascus, part of Aleppo,… it is not because it support the regime, also Alraqa and Dairezour, it is not support Isis, lot of Always whom now support the regime they do because they have no another option, Idlip and Homs was not a land for fanatic Jihadists, In general we can say : Syria now under occupation of the gangs: the regime, Iranian militias, the Isis and other international Jihadists also.
the shape of the military organization is not stable, it moves with the resources of support, so no mean to the maps or names and Statistics … because the situation is always deceiving and changing… so any study would be wrong just by time.
The Syrian needs like any other people needs, but whom prevent it, and how… that would define the reaction of the people.
The violence suppression create the local armed groups named FSA, it was the most majority of fighters at the Beginning…. sectarian behave of the regime create sectarian Islamic Jihadists…. the Iranian intervention encourage the Saudi and turkey… Russian assault unify the groups under the flag of al Qaeda…
Then the situation express the reaction, but the main actor still the regime who assumes all responsibility.
Whom still constantly is the will of the regime to continue fighting by all means, and also the will of the people to be free and independent what so ever the price.
In Syria the regime depend on big army and armed securities, also militias related to the Baath party, (called public militia), the regime also get used to compose and cooperate with gangs supposed to be an enemy, to do anything he want without responsibility, some of them is Islamic Jihadist as Isis, Palestine as Fateh al Islam, Kurd as P K K, Shyatt as Hezbollah, Always (Shabbiha), also Druze.
The regime look like a director of gangs in Syria. So the fail of Syrian state is not new…
The fail in establishing patriot political system, and the rule of law… is old, it is not because the revolution which has only one aim (knocking down the walls of prison) (الشعب يريد اسقاط النظام )
We cannot define sectarian militia independent from the regime in the minorities…… the Sunni jihadist also became sectarian in reacting with the regime sectarian massacre….. so the main conflict in Syria is between the regime and the people, and any initiative for peace do not regard this, will fail and will only prolonged the conflict, as happen last weeks in Vienna.
The military opposition groups composed from two main parts:
- Local military groups (free army) classified as moderate, because it is independent, patriot, not ideology, so… because of that it complain the lack of: organization, and support….. The external support till now goes to the Islamists parties whom till now rule the coalition and the out government and hall the institutions of the opposition.
- Ideological jihadist groups which have good indirect support from outside, or have own resources, it behave as states or emirates of war. All of it are fanatic violent able to use terrorism but also defense the people from the regime assaults: I mean (Al Nosrah Front and its sister’s Jaish al faith aljabha al-Shmeiah Jaish al Islam Ahrar al sham…). Isis is deferent, it more independent more violent against the people, it came from Iraq behave as occupation force in Syria, as same as (Hezbollah and Shyatt militias, PKK and the similar groups….)
To classify the members of this fanatic groups we have three classes:
- 10% whom refuse to fight under any flag else, most of them outside volunteers.
- 30% whom accept to leave it in special condition (has logistic supports for example), represent the Syrian fanatics. Half of them get fanatic recently because the massacre and war.
- 60% whom obliged to work with the Jihadists, and waiting a time to leave it, and had separate aims represent the moderates whom change their loyalty because the urgent needs and conditions……. (Regard that in south the situation is deferent just because the influence of neighbors).
When we search for moderate opposition we have to regard the totally lost of the Syrian society (political structure, institutions, civil society)…. because the huge war, occupation, terrorism, emigration, and displacement…and fake representation so nobody can find legal or acceptable representation for Syrians now, it need long term investing in administration and organization … instead of that, the regional influence and support will help finally the fanatic ideology.
All in all, it is not Syria….. The Always is not the regime, the Shiite is not Hezbollah, Kurd is not PKK, and Sunni is not al Qaeda, or Isis.
All of this are the result of the problem, real Syria could be seen just in the sieges inside, and in the camps refugees outside.
Syrian people like me find themselves dismissed out their homes and case.
The funny coalition represent the international security agencies and the money resources …. So it keep conflicting, and dividing by two parts (Gas and Oil), the Jihadist groups also don’t represent the will of the Syrian, and of course the criminal tyranny regime.
Whom think we have to let the fanatics exhaust each other, do not regard that they get more powerful and more spread and influence by the time……… whom exhausting is the humanity, the societies, and our methods and security.
The wide spread of ignorance and corruption, the absence of any law authorities and control exaggerate criminal and cruel culture, especially in new generation … all of this make the time against us. Plus the huge humanitarian price.
No any magic total solution now can be made in Geneva or Vienna, no mean to use the criminals for establishing the justice, no wisdom in recycling the regime and the moldy corrupt oppositions, after they became political rubbish. No benefits from their mutual government.
We need to start from definite areas and build the new example, and support it to expand in all the area.
It is very important to create safe zones in south and north, and help the people to return and reinstall their own lovely Syria… so the hall of the region, in very new way out of the criminals and crimes, depending on the people not the foreign armies, using the power of life not the power for death …
It is the only thing which let us say the blood of Syrian were not cheap.
Berlin 22 November 2015
Dr. Mohamad Kamal Allabwani