Dr. Mohamad Kamal Allabwani
My estimation to the Vienna meeting comparing with the facts in Syria:
- The meeting aimed to avoid international clash in Syria, not to find solution respond to deep needs of peace and stability in the Middle East.
- The second aim is to fight Isis.
- The contradiction between the different outside benefits will still sustain the conflict , there is no evidence to good or real will to find solution ( which need lot of mutual sacrifices )
- USA do not in harry to give hand to Russia to get out the (moving sands), or to avoid wide conflict with the Islamic world.
- The Russian benefits contradict totally the Turkish benefits in Syria.
- The Russian assault trying to achieve military victory to impose its will.
- The main power which able to contradict that is the Jihadist group which expected to has more developed weapons, and has more popularity and public support.
- Russia insist for years on exaggeration the crisis and sectarian crimes, till the crisis of Syria passed the reversible point, in the aim to divide Syria. And occupy part of it.
- as the same as Iranian strategy which insist in pushing the minorities especially the Always to commit more and more sectarian crimes against Sunni, in the same time Iran and Syrian regime give hand to the most fanatic Islamic terrorist groups to exaggerate the crisis. I Mean Isis which had a big aids from Syrian and Iraq and Iranian regimes.
- Iran and Hezbollah need to occupy part of Syria near the Lebanese border to continue their military program freely , and to guard their project in Middle East ( they have lot of suspected area they use it to develop their military program including mass destruction weapons)
- Partition of Syria is also main aim to the Kurdish power which had support from the east and the west booth.
- Partition of Syria is not contradict the benefits of Israel also.
- The Arabic regimes send support only to Islamists to avoid the democracy in Syria which going to affect their societies.
- The regime believe that any solution will not allow him to continue, so they will resist it along the road.
- The majority of Syrian became victims and suffered a lot , so they are not able to jump to peace without justice, which totally ignored in Vienna meeting , that give absolutely impunity to Bashar regime to still killing as he want .
- The problem in Syria is not politic any more it is criminal problem cannot be solved by negotiation
- No mean or wisdom in using the criminals to build stability, as it designed in Vienna meeting.
- The only mutual goal in Vienna meeting is to fight Isis, and the other fanatic groups, as a clear enemy, which easily able to avoid facing, melt in the society and in the moderate groups, and revive again in another condition, so the military treatment is not enough. The problem of terrorism is more complicated, it need marshal project to make deep changing especially in culture.
- In this conditions we do not expect easy success for this process,
- To solve the problem of Syria we need to put Syria under mandate of UN not Russia, as a fail state, not the criminal regime nor the corrupt opposition can find solution, and also nor their mutual government , they are all the cause of the problem , not a tool of its solution …
- we need to start the efforts from definite safe zones , have real support to rebuild the society from this ruin , and make it as example encourage the others to participate .
- The trial to avoid international conflict give Syria chance to keep its unity and independence
- Also give the UN efforts more ability to succeed.
- The success in this mission would help in avoiding large international war.
- It needs real support from Europe and good positive cooperation from patriot Syrians, whom totally excluded by the local states which seeking and supporting only their loyal agent, so the representation in the opposition is exclusive for them.
- There is at least some chance to improve the humanitarian situation in some areas,
- Also we have to be courage enough to try imposing a save zone in the south, because the local power and the neighbors will not resist it.
- Any fast success would give the hope to the despaired people, and enhance the peaceful process.
- We maybe need another meetings after Vienna I think, because it is a deferent stage in the conflict, not the end of it.