The situation in Syria is tragic and getting worse by the day and the suffering of the Syrian people is increasing and there is no possible solution on the horizon. The whole region has become threatened by regional, civil and acute ethnic wars. Iran’s sectarian, expansive and ethnic plans are clearly aiming to dominate the countries of the region.With all that is happening we cannot stand by watching nor is it possible to wait for the worst to happen or for the international community to suggest a naïve solution. It is not possible to form a central respectable and successful government in Damascus by holding conferences in Geneva. In fact we should expect the international solution to fail because of the bad intentions and dishonesty of the enemy. This expected failure will waste time and allow the disintegration of the state in addition to the evolving of security areas and war lords fighting for power in Syria. Syria will be a field for extremism, terrorism and organized crime that will extend across borders to engulf the whole region.
Being lenient with agitations from Iran and Russia will ruin all chances of peace and stability as they are violating the international system and obstructing the work of international organizations. This axis – Iran and Russia is exploiting the conflicts to achieve their own interests through force and violence without any rules. They are evasive towards their commitments and agreements.
Due to the failure of the United States of America and Europe to act in the region, we are witnessing an imbalance of power to the benefit of the evil axis of Iran and Russia which will make it more difficult to regain the balance of power without new alliances that include the forces of the region to consequently give new spirit to the peace process and find new effective formulas for cooperation in the region.
To contain this deteriorating reality and to reverse the path of catastrophic events, I suggest thinking of the following principles:
– It is not realistic or moral to bet on the victory of Bashar Al Assad and his alliance after all the crimes they have committed, and it is not moral to help him or to accept the expansion of the Iranian cancer towards the west. Nor should we tolerate Russian arrogance that stands against the global system and obstructs its function. Also the Syrian people and the people of the region do not accept that they should submit to the terrorism of the extremist Sunni and Shiite organizations that are operating in Lebanon, Iraq and north of Syria. It is very important to stand up and combat this extremism and terrorism.
– The choice between fighting a regime that acts like a criminal gang and fighting extremist opposition factions is a disabling choice. Therefore, we have to interfere effectively to support a moderate harmonious opposition that is able to guarantee stability and democracy; an opposition that is able to renew the formula of civilized co-existence and prevent extremism and terrorism. This possibility is available because of the strength, vitality and reasonableness of the Syrian people.
– It is possible for us simultaneously to kick out the gangs of the regime and to stop the violence and extremism starting from the south (we mean from Damascus and its suburbs and Daraa, Suwaida and Kunaitra reaching the borders with Jordan) not forgetting the special advantages due to the nature of the society and the neighbouring countries as the extremist forces are not strong in that area.
– If a fast change in the military situation occurs with the residents of the area giving real support to the moderate forces – stopping extremism is guaranteed over the southern region, and then we can free the whole of liberated Syria from the murderous regime and the sectarian occupation. This will help in the stability of Lebanon and Iraq and consequently guarantee peace and security between the neighboring countries that should develop economic cooperation which will help in building a platform for coexistence and peace.
– Because of this ugly civil war, during which the people of Syria have witnessed atrocities and murders, they have gone through a state where all traditional stereotypical concepts collapsed. Not only public rule and security have collapsed but also the inherited cultural and political system. The Syrian people went through a state of confusion and a trial and error situation; they have become very sensitive and open to every change. These circumstances are conducive to an appeal to the senses of people and to their minds. The second phase of the revolution must include building new and different cultural formulas that surpass the past and do not repeat it; therefore we have to help the Syrian people to build a culture of peace and civilization instead of drowning in extremism, violence and barbarism.
These initiatives may seem difficult or impossible, but there are strategic interests for some countries in the region which will be the catalyst for them to cooperate in achieving these initiatives
I believe that the following stake-holders are capable of working for the success of this issue:
1- Most of the forces and components of the Syrian society on both sides as they have all suffered from the behaviour of the regime that used the people’s revolution as an opportunity to instigate civil conflict and sedition. This will necessitate the production of a social, civil and democratic contract based on interests and not based on dogmatic beliefs. This will be a historic conciliation that surpasses anything known in the past. Many of those who are siding with the regime are afraid of the regime and yet they are also afraid of the other side. If they found a guaranteed path they would take it and abandon the regime.
2- The Lebanese state that is threatened to a great extent as a result of this conflict; Lebanon has become a part of this conflict and is contributing to this conflict. It is actually happening on its land and Lebanon is witnessing its consequences.
3- The Jordanian state that carries a heavy burden and is exposed to many threats due to lack of safety and security in the region.
4- The Palestinian Authority that has been unable until now to reach a position that accepts stability and achieves the minimum level of rights and interests of the Palestinian people in their homeland and the diasporas.
5- The Gulf States whose existence is threatened because of Iranian expansion also feel responsibility towards the suffering of the Syrian people.
6- Turkey that is also involved in the crisis and its land is threatened in more ways than one, as is its social entity. Turkey also tries to be the holder of the flag of peace, stability and cooperation in the region and it adopts that as a strategy.
7- Iraq that is contributing to this conflict and replicating it. The components of Iraq are divided in their own way and they are involved in the crisis.
8- The Iranian people who witness their regime working to export their internal problems through the instigation of conflicts abroad. The Iranian people are paying the price in two ways: through their sons and through their money in addition to their dignity and freedom. The Iranian people will find the way paved for changing their regime if we defeat the sectarian expansive project of their government. This will help the Iranian people to contribute to the project of peace and regional cooperation instead of a Sunni-Shiite war that will destroy everything.
9- The State of Israel that is influenced by the spread of lethal weapons, by the spread of extremism and lack of stability. Israel has tried to stand impartial and not interfere in this crisis but found a dangerous situation on its borders of extremism, and chaos and different hostile militias. Not forgetting the leak of dangerous weapons. Israel needs to put a final end to the state of hostility with its neighbors and to start getting involved in a total regional cooperation that guarantees safe living for its people in the region.
10- The Western world that had alliances with most of these countries and is interested in stability and security in this region that is threatened with chaos. Not forgetting its responsibility towards the deteriorating humanitarian situation and the enforcement of the global system that would keep peace and stability.
The Role of The Friends of Syria
The role of the Friends of Syria is to guarantee diplomatic support, and to activate the legal institutions to put the regime on trial for its crimes, and to ensure the flow of support for the aid organizations of the international society. It is concerned with giving aid in logistics to the Syrian people and to the revolution and to enforce the siege and isolation of the regime and to practice the pressures on its alliances and supporters.
The Role of Jordan and Turkey:
– Giving aid and help in logistics on its lands and through its borders
– Helping in organizing and management especially inside the liberated areas and to help the local institutions and organizations of public services and the resettlement of the refugees.
– Helping in organizing the new evolving political bodies that care for a new civilized national formula and a nationally agreed political program.
The Role of the Gulf States:
– Financing the humanitarian and military support of the revolutionary forces and the civil society institutions through a monitored fund managed by a shared military and political leadership of the revolution.
The Role of Israel:
– It is not logical for Israel to think that it is isolated from its neighbors because the issues of peace and war in the region are intertwined.
– The Syrian people believe that Al Assad is still in authority because of the support of Israel, therefore the Syrian people feel resentment and hate towards Al Assad and Israel, as they consider Israel a partner in the crimes and a cause of this crime. Changing this idea requires a clear and practical position from Israel that would change the very sensitive mood of the people in this difficult situation. This will increase the chances of achieving peace and stability in the region.
– Most of the armed forces on the ground have started to accept some kind of cooperation with Israel after the barbarism that has been practised by the regime, Iran and their gangs or the fanatic groups or gangs from the other side and after the disappointment that hit them from the position of the international society. The forces will be more encouraged if they start to see some results.
– Israel can help through its power and influence to ensure the enforcement of an actual no fly zone regardless of the method of implementation; it could be through supplying the moderate disciplined opposition with the necessary arms or through using the Israeli defences or NATO airplanes. It is irrelevant whether this is announced or not. This no fly zone should start with one hundred kilometres and expand according to developments, and its justification is to prevent the Assad regime from killing the Syrian people.
– In return the other side would guarantee the abandonment of the choice of war, and get involved in a negotiation process that would achieve peace in accordance with the principles of international law and the references of the peace process.
– Israel could correct its experiment in the south of Lebanon but with a more successful copy in the south of Syria as Israel will play a role in protecting the civilians, supporting the majority, the moderate forces and forces of stability. Doing that without occupying land or sending soldiers on the ground or without appearing to be the supporter of minorities to the detriment of the majority or without empowering one side to the detriment of the other.
– Israel could give aid in logistics to the revolutionaries and also humanitarian aid to the refugees; it could open deep relationships between Arab and Israeli society to break the current status of hostility, hate and fear. It is also possible to start using the Golan Heights as a “Garden of Peace” and a place for people of the region to get to know each other after all the wars they have lived through. Arabs from Israel especially could become active mediators to bridge the gap between societies.
The Role of Druze – monotheistic and Other Factions
– The role of Druze in the south of Syria, Golan, Lebanon and Israel could be more effective. Their unity could play a mediating role between societies and be a flag of peace in the region.
– It would be possible to liberate Suwaida and Druze areas and hand them over to the local Druze forces in return for their cooperation in protecting the surrounding areas.
– In changing the attitude of Druze in Suwaida the equation in the south of Damascus will be changed and that will facilitate its liberation and prevent Huzbullah from establishing its security zone over Druze land or in the neighbourhood . More importantly there will be a change in Lebanon as Huzballah will lose its majority with the change in attitude of the local Druze in parallel with the attitude of the Druze in Syria. The other minorities and the moderate in the majority will join the project which will isolate the forces of extremism.
– Encouraging a Sunni-Druze alliance through practical measures
is a must in the area.
– It is a must to repatriate as many as possible of the refugees from Jordan back to Syria or to move them to the liberated secured areas, it is preferable to move them to the Druze areas or areas near to Golan to be helped and also to strengthen the friendly relations with the people concerned with peace.
– It is possible to communicate with the other minorities and parts of the society to lobby for rebuild the national contract instead of the murderous regime and the chaos.
– It is possible to invite to an expanded national conference that includes all the spectrum of the civil society to negotiate the formula for future Syria that respects and satisfies all segments of the society under a regional and international sponsorship.
The Role of the Syrian People and the Forces of Revolution
– It is about time to stop appointing( agents) of supporting countries and name them as leaders of the revolution and representatives of the Syrian people, in their cartoon councils. Most of them are opportunists and they are separated from the Syrian people; they hold the same corrupted mentality as the regime and they are reproducing the regime in a deformed way.
– A shared, effective and active political and military leadership should be formed to lead the national work as a whole in an effective and central way. This council would include 31 members, half of them from among the military and revolutionaries and the other half from among the politicians. This council would oversee the work of the executive civil and military institutions… ( it is possible to discuss the way to form the council and how it would gain legality and how it could be supervised). I suggest that the Friends of Syria in consensus would name an arbitration committee of nine patriot people who are independent (not party members) trustworthy respectable and credible; this committee would be entrusted to form the shared leadership from the most prominent elements of the revolution among military and political personalities without any quotas of any kind, depending on qualifications only.
– All the different opposition military and political institutions and service would be annexed to this shared leadership. It would take its decisions with a normal majority.
– All forms of support would be under the supervision of the leadership and all supporting countries would be committed to that.
– The shared leadership would adopt its own internal system and would announce its commitment to a new constitution.
– This arbitration committee would encourage all the armed groups to join under the umbrella of this leadership and to commit to the criteria that are approved by the leadership. It would propose plans to contain the fighters and to raise awareness and inform them of their duties. It would propose plans to dismantle the extremist groups and to integrate them in the forces of moderation instead of isolating them and ejecting them abroad which will make problems for other countries.
– The military leadership will announce the military discipline criteria and its rules that will ensure that weapons belong to the nation and guarantee the discipline of the fighters – military courts will be formed for supervision.
– A supreme legal council will be formed to supervise the reform of the legal system and effective police forces will be annexed to it.
– An interim government will be formed with local administrative councils to manage the liberated areas.
– A unified fund will be formed – local and international committees will supervise fiscal matters and credibility.
– Policies will be adopted to focus on the strategy of liberation, security, building, repatriation of refugees, completing reconciliation, operating the economy, ensuring the credibility of the work over all the areas and throughout the liberation period, and also ensuring the total transparency of institutional work.
Key Elements of the shared work
It is not possible to organize this chaos and overcome all these failures, and to reverse the catastrophic path of events without unifying the efforts and adopting a general and holistic project with long term vision and gathering social and international support for this project. This will require changing the traditional political mind paradigms of all parties which have led us to the mess we are witnessing today.
The forces of the region could cooperate together to execute this project without the need for international decisions, away from exterior influences that have become part and cause of the problems. This could be achieved through working together on security and military arrangements that would guarantee the required results.
– It is possible to start establishing a secure and liberated area starting from the south towards Damascus. All elements of success are available if Israel cooperates, as Israel is the key to the solution. The success of this operation will not require any international consent or an effective Arab interference. The same could be done with the help of Turkey in the north. It is possible to start negotiating with the western coastal area and also the eastern northern areas to re-include them in the national project without Al Assad’s regime and to complete the liberation and unification of Syria.
– The liberated capital, Damascus, could impact to a great extent the general trend in Syria, beside that a strong, moderate and central government would contribute in liberating and unifying the country quickly and this would undermine the role of Iran and weaken the role of Huzballah and the role of extremism also.
– If this cooperation is activated and after the situation has been stabilized, it would be much easier to implement the peace process with Israel in accordance with the international peace reference that would ensure direct social openness and economical and human inter-relations, and shared security among all the countries of the region and their peoples. It would be easy to complete historical conciliations and to build cooperative relations based on good neighbourliness and mutual interests and it would facilitate the arrangement of security measures that would diminish the fears of all parties.
– All these principles could be discussed in all their steps in general and in detail with the working forces on the ground directly or through an expanded national conference, only after the initial approval of the friendly and concerned countries and execution of trust-building measures.
– Any such project needs approval by the people and their acceptance, and this will not only require preparation of the project and announcing it to the public but also the seriousness of all parties and their desire to proceed with it. Therefore the percentage of people approving the project will increase tremendously if it has a positive response from the international society and the other states in the territory. It is not a matter of how many people are in agreement today but what is their percentage after taking the trust-building measures that would confirm the seriousness of the choice and make its benefits foreseeable, so instead of measuring how much support we have at the present moment we should work and reassess and correct and then adjust. As long as we are on the path towards a high goal and we are convinced of the morality of our work, the success is interactive and related in accordance with the effort put in by every party, and the future is open in front of us and it depends on what we do today.
Dr. Kamal Al Labwani
Damascus Institute for Research and Studies
