Situation in Syria is tragic and getting worse by the day and the suffering of the Syrian people is increasing and no possible solution in the horizon. The whole region has become threatened by regional, civil and acute ethnic wars. Iran sectarian expansive and ethnic plans are clearer aiming to dominate the countries of the region.
With all what is happening we cannot stand by watching and it is not possible to wait for the worst to happen or for the international naïve solution. It is not possible to form a central respectable and successful government in Damascus through holding conferences in Geneva. Actually we should expect failure of the international solution because of bad intention and dishonesty of the enemy. This expected failure will waste time allowing the disintegration of the state in addition to evolving of security areas and war lords fighting for power in Syria. Syria will be a field for extremism, terrorism and organized crime that will extend across borders to engulf the whole region.
Being lenient with agitations from Iran and Russia will ruin all chances of peace and stability as they are violating the international system and obstructing the work of international organizations. This axis – Iran and Russia is exploiting the conflicts to achieve their interests through force and violence without any rules. They are evasive towards their commitments and agreements.
Due to the refrain of the United States of America and Europe to act in the region, we can witness an imbalance to the benefit of the evil axis of Iran and Russia which made it more difficult to regain the balance without new alliances that include the forces of the region to consequently give new spirit to the peace process and find new effective formulas for cooperation in the region.
To contain this deteriorating reality and to reverse the path of catastrophic events; I suggest thinking of the following principles:
– It is not realistic or moral to bet on the victory of Bashar Al Assad and his alliance after all the crimes they have committed, and it is not even moral to help him or to accept the expansion of the Iranian cancer towards the west. Or this Russian arrogance that stands against the global system and obstructs its function. Also the Syrian people and the people of the region don’t accept to be submissive to the terrorism of the extremist Sunni and Shiite organizations that are operating in Lebanon, Iraq and north of Syria. It is very important to stand up and combat the extremism and terrorism.
– The choice between a regime that acts like criminal gangs and fighting extremist opposition factions is the choice of disabled. Therefore, we have to interfere effectively to support a moderate harmonic opposition that is able to guarantee stability and democracy. Opposition that is able to renew the formula of civilized co-existence and prevent extremism and terrorism. This possibility is available due to the empowerment, vitality and reasonability of the Syrian people.
– We are able to kick out the gangs of the regime and to stop the violence and extremism both at the same time starting from the south (we mean from Damascus and its suburbs and Daraa, Suwaida and Kunaitra reaching the borders with Jordan) not forgetting the special advantages due to the nature of the society and the neighboring countries as the extremist forces are not strong in that area.
– If fast change of military situation is to occur and with the support of the residents of the area and real support of the moderate forces – stopping extremism is guaranteed over the southern region, and then we can defeat them in the whole of liberated Syria from the murderous regime and the sectarian occupation. This will help in the stability of Lebanon and Iraq and consequently the guarantee of peace and security between the neighboring countries that should develop the economic cooperation which will help in building the platform for coexistence and peace.
– The Syrian society through this ugly civil war, during which people of Syria have witnessed atrocities and murders, they went through a state where all traditional stereo type concepts collapsed. Not only the public rule and security have collapsed but also the inherited cultural and political system. The Syrian people went through a state of confusion and trial and error situation; they have become very sensitive and open to every change. These circumstances are suitable to talk to the senses of people and to their minds. The second phase of the revolution must include building of new different cultural formulas that surpass the past and not repeat it; therefore we have to help the Syrian people to build the culture of peace and civilization instead of drowning in extremism, violence and barbarism.
These initiatives could seem difficult or impossible, but there is are strategic interests for some countries in the region which will be the catalyst for them to cooperate for achieving these initiatives
I suppose that the following stake holders are capable of working for the success of this issue:
1- Most of the forces and components of the Syrian society on both sides as they all suffered from the behaviors of the regime that took a shield from the people’s revolution behind instigating destructive civil conflicts and seditions. This will oblige the reproduction of the social civil and democratic contract based on interests and not based on dogmatic believes. The happenings of big historic conciliations that surpass the past. Many of those who are siding by the regime are afraid of the regime and yet they are afraid of the other side. If they find a guaranteed path they would take it and abandon the regime.
2- The Lebanese state that is threatened to a great extent as a result of this conflict. Lebanon has become a part of this conflict and contributing to this conflict. Actually it is happening on its land and Lebanon is witnessing its consequences.
3- The Jordanian state that carries a heavy burden and is exposed to a lot of threats due to lack of safety and security in the region.
4- The Palestinian Authority that stands unable till now to reach a position that accepts stability and achieve the minimum level of rights and interests of the Palestinian people in their homeland and the Diasporas.
5- The Gulf States that are threatened in its existence because of the Iranian expansion and it feels the responsibility towards the sufferings of the Syrian people.
6- Turkey also is involved in the crisis that is threatening its land in more ways than one, and it threatens its social entity. Turkey also tries to be the holder of flag of peace, stability and cooperation in the region and it adopts that as a strategy.
7- Iraq that is contributing to this conflict and replicating it. The components of Iraq are divided in their own way and they are involved in the crisis.
8- The Iranian people who witness their regime working to export the internal problems through instigation of conflicts abroad. The Iranian people are paying the price in two ways; through their sons and through their money in addition to their dignity and freedom. The Iranian people will find the way paved for changing their regime if we defeat the sectarian expansive project of their government. This will help the Iranian people to contribute to the project of peace and regional cooperation instead of a Sunni-Shiite war that will destroy everything.
9- Israel state that is influenced by the spread of lethal weapons, by the spread of extremism and lack of stability. Israel has tried to stand impartial and not interfere in this crisis but found a dangerous situation on its border of extremism, and chaos and different hostile militias. Not forgetting the leak of dangerous weapons. Israel state is in need to put a final end to the state of hostility with its neighbors and to start getting involved in a total regional cooperation that guarantees safe living for its people in the region.
10- The Western world that had alliances with most of these countries and that is interested in stability and security in the region, this region that is threatened with chaos. Not forgetting its responsibility towards the deteriorating humanitarian situation and the enforcement of the global system that would keep peace and stability.
The Role of Friends of Syria
The role of the Friends of Syria is to guarantee the diplomatic support, activating the legal institutions to put the regime to trial for its crimes, and to ensure the flow of support for the aid organizations of international society. It is concerned with giving aid in logistics to the Syrian people and to the revolution and to enforce the siege and isolation of the regime and to practice the pressures on its alliances and supporters.
The Role of Jordan and Turkey:
– Giving aid and help in logistics on its lands and through its borders
– Helping in organizing and management especially inside the liberated areas and to help the local institutions and organizations of public services and to resettlement of the refugees.
– Helping in organizing the new evolving political bodies that care for new civilized national formula and a national political program agreed upon.
The Role of the Gulf States:
– Financing the humanitarian and military support of the revolutionary forces and the civil society institutions through a monitored fund managed by a shared military and political leadership of the revolution.
The Role of Israel:
– It is not logical for Israel to think that it is isolated from its neighbors because the issue of peace and war in the region is entwined.
– The Syrian people believe that Al Assad is still in authority because of the supports of Israel therefore the Syrian people feel resentment and hate to Al Assad and to Israel, as they consider Israel a partner in the crimes and a cause of this crime. Changing this idea requires a clear and practical position from Israel that would change the very sensitive mood of the people in this difficult situation. This will increase the chances of achieving peace and stability in the region.
– Most of the armed forces on the ground have started to accept some kind of cooperation with Israel after the barbarism that was practiced by the regime, Iran and their gangs or the gangs from the other side and after the disappointment that hit them from the position of the International society. The forces will be more encouraged if they start to see some results.
– Israel can help through its power and influence to ensure the enforcement of an actual no fly zone regardless of the method of implementation; it could be through supplying the moderate disciplined opposition with the necessary arms or through using the Israeli defenses or the Nato airplanes. It is irrelevant whether this is announced or not. This no fly zone will start with one hundred kilometer and expands according to developments and the excuse is to prevent the Assad regime from killing the Syrian people.
– In return the second party will guarantee the abandonment of the choice of war, and to get involved in a negotiation process that would achieve peace in accordance with the principles of the international law and the references of the peace process.
– Israel could repeat its experiment in south of Lebanon but with a more successful copy in south of Syria as Israel will play a role in protecting the civilians, supporting the majority, the moderate forces and forces of stability. Doing that without occupying land or sending soldiers on the ground or without appearing to be the supporter of minorities on the account of the majority or without empowering one side on the account of the other.
– Israel could give aid in logistics to the revolutionaries and also humanitarian aid to the refugees; it could open social relationships with the Israeli society to break the hostility status, hate and fear. It is also possible to start using Golan Heights as a “Garden of Peace” and a place for people of the region to get to know each other after all the wars they lived through. Arabs from Israel especially could become active mediators that bridge the gap between societies.
The Role of Druze – monotheistic and Other Factions
– The role of Druze in south of Syria, Golan, Lebanon and Israel could be more effective. Their unity could play a mediator between societies and flag of peace in the region.
– It is possible to liberate Suwaida and Druze areas and handing it over to the local Druze forces in cooperation with their surroundings to play a role in protecting it.
– In changing the attitude of Druze in Suwaida the equation in south of Damascus will be changed and that will facilitate its liberation and preventing Huzbullah from establishing their security zone over Druze land or in the nearby. More importantly there will be a change in Lebanon as Huzballah will lose the majority with the change of the attitude of the Druze parallel with the attitude with Druze in Syria. The rest of the components will join the project which will isolate the forces of extremism.
– Encouraging Sunni-Durzi alliance is a must in the area through practical measures.
– It is a must to repatriate as many as possible of the refugees from Jordan back to Syria or to move them to the liberated secured areas, it is preferable to move them to the Drurzi areas or areas near to Golan to be helped and also to strengthen the friendly relations with the people concerned with peace.
– It is possible to communicate with the rest of the components of the society to lobby for necessary support to build the national contract instead of the murderous regime and the chaos that is prevailing and division and conflict.
– It is possible to invite to an expanded national conference that include all the spectrum of the civil society to negotiate the formula for future Syria that respects and satisfy all segments of the society under a regional and international sponsorship.
The Role of the Syrian People and the Forces of Revolution
– It is about time to stop appointing agents from supporting countries, and to acknowledge their cartoon councils as leaders for the revolution and representatives of the Syrian people. Most of them are from the opportunists and they are separated from the Syrian people, they hold the same corrupted mentality of the regime and they are reproducing the regime in a deformed way.
– A shared, effective and active political and military leadership should be formed to lead the national work as a whole in an effective and central way. This council would include 31 members half of them from among the military and revolutionaries and the other half from among the politicians. This council will overlook the work of the executive civil and military institutions… ( it is possible to discuss the way to form the council and how it would gain legality and how it could be supervised). I suggest that Friends of Syria in consensus would name an arbitration committee of nine national people who are independent – not party members- trustworthy respectable and credible; this committee would be entrusted to form this shared leadership from the most prominent elements of revolution among military and political personalities without any quotas of any kind depending on qualifications only.
– Annexed to this shared leadership all the different opposition military and political institutions and service and spatial institutions. It takes its decisions with normal majority.
– All kinds of support will be under the supervision of the leadership and all supporting countries will be committed to that.
– The shared leadership will adopt its own internal system and will announce a committal constitutional statement.
– It encourages all the armed groups to join under the umbrella of this leadership and to commit to the criteria that are approved by the leadership. It will put plans to contain the fighters and to raise awareness and introduce them with their duties. Put plans to dismantle the extremist groups and to melt their elements in the society and within the forces of moderation instead of isolating them and ejecting abroad which will make a problem to other countries.
– The military leadership will announce the military discipline criteria and its rules that will ensure that weapons belong to the nation and guarantee the discipline of the fighters – military courts will be formed for supervision.
– Supreme legal council will be formed to supervise the reform of the legal system and effective police forces will be annexed to it.
– Interim government will be formed with local administrative councils to manage the liberated areas.
– A unified fund will be formed – local and international committees will supervise the fiscal matter and credibility.
– Policies focus on the strategy of liberation, security , building, repatriation of refugees, completing reconciliations, operating the economy, ensuring the credibility of the work over all the areas and throughout the liberation period, and also ensuring the total transparency and institutional work.
Key Elements of the shared work
It is not possible to organize this chaos and overcome all this failures, to reverse the catastrophic path of events without unifying the efforts and adopting a general and holistic project with long term vision and to gather the social and international support for this project. This will require changing the traditional political mind paradigms of all parties which had lead us to this mess we are witnessing today.
The forces of the region could cooperate together to execute this project without the need for international decisions, away from exterior influences that have become part and cause of the problems. This could be achieved through working together on security and military arrangements that would guarantee the required results.
– It is possible to start establishing a secure and liberated area starting from the south towards Damascus. All elements of success are available if Israel cooperates, as Israel is the key to the solution. The success of this operation will not require any international consent or an Arab effective interference. The same could be done with the help of Turkey in the north. It is possible to start negotiating with the western coastal area and also the eastern northern areas to re-include them in the national project without Al Assad regime and to complete the liberation and unification of Syria.
– Liberated Capital Damascus could impact to a great extent the general trend in Syria, beside that a strong moderate and central government will contribute in liberating and unifying the country quickly and this will undermine the role of Iran and weaken the role of Huzballah and the role of extremism also.
– If this cooperation is activated and after the stability of the situation, it would be much easier to implement the peace process with Israel in accordance with the international peace reference that would ensure direct social openness and economical and human inter-relations, and shared security among all the countries of the region and their people. It would be easy to complete historical conciliations and to build cooperation relations based on good neighborhood and mutual interests and it would facilitate the arrangement of security measures that diminish the fears of all parties.
– All these principles could be discussed in all its steps in general and in details with the working forces on the ground directly or through an expanded national conference, only after the initial approval of the friendly and concerned countries and execution of trust building measures.
– Any such project needs approval by the people and their acceptance, and this will not only require preparation of the project and announcing it to the public but also the seriousness of all parties and their desire to go ahead with it. Therefore the percentage of people approving the project will increase tremendously if it has the positive response from the international society and the other party. It is not a matter of how many people are in agreement today but what is their percentage after taking the building trust measures that would confirm the seriousness of the choice and it makes its benefits foreseeable, so instead of measuring we should work and reassess and correct and then adjust. As long as we are on the path towards a high goal and we are convinced of the morality of our work, the success is interactive and related in accordance with the efforts put by every party, and the future is open in front of us and it depends on what we do today.
